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The eight-year-old bull market may be due for a setback after its postelection rally but remains supported by improving fundamentals.
Our view is consistent with the consensus that U.S. equities will see further upside in the next 12 to 18 months. Improving global growth should result in opportunities. Our neutral view on growth versus value is a result of favoring sectors in both styles (e.g., technology and financials).
Stronger growth and earnings are taking hold globally, while in Europe political risks are abating.
We agree with the consensus view that investors should overweight non-U.S. equities in a global balanced portfolio. Improving corporate fundamentals and attractive valuations are increasingly potential tailwinds, while populist politics have started to fade in Europe.
A nimble approach may be warranted to pursue income opportunities outside of low-yielding government sectors.
Our fixed-income view stems from the bearish outlook of a number of managers in our network; some have reduced duration. We believe investment-grade corporates and emerging-market debt still offer upside.
Earnings have rebounded in developed and emerging markets, with revenue growth coming from a pickup in global economic activity.
Economic growth continues to turn up across G7 countries and many emerging markets, supported by broadly accommodative monetary policy, while inflation remains low. Pro-growth administrations offer the potential to add further stimulus.
The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to withdraw liquidity at a measured pace as employment data remains strong, although inflationary pressures remain limited. Elsewhere, central bankers appear to be moving beyond peak accommodation as global economic growth firms.
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